Pub. 7 2018-2019 Issue 2

22 San Diego Dealer Covering Fourth Quarter 2018 Volume 19, Number 1 San Diego Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market Market Summary Annual Trend in County Market 2017 2018* % Chg. Mkt. Share Annual Annual '17 to '18 2018* TOTAL 157,070 150,572 -4.1% Car 71,891 63,709 -11.4% 42.3% Light Truck 85,179 86,863 2.0% 57.7% Domestic 41,378 42,586 2.9% 28.3% European 23,918 22,571 -5.6% 15.0% Japanese 79,480 73,792 -7.2% 49.0% Korean 12,294 11,623 -5.5% 7.7% 139287 146844 161240 162239 157070 150572 146250 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019 Forecast New light vehicle registrations Below is a summary of eight key trends and developments in the San Diego County new vehicle market. County new retail light vehicle registrations exceeded 150,000 units in 2018 The new vehicle market declined slightly last year, but sales remained at elevated levels. 2018 marked the fifth consecutive year that new registrations exceeded 145,000 units, which is a lofty total for the county market. New vehicle sales likely to soften in 2019 There are a few signs pointing to a market slowdown. GDP growth appears to be easing while there are increasing concerns about financial market stability and the prospects for global growth. But the strong labor market combined with a steady stream of impressive new products, should limit declines over the next 18 months. Trucks grab a larger share of county market Light truck market share increased from 38.3% in 2012 to 57.7% in 2018. Alternative powertrain market improves County registrations of hybrid and electric cars and trucks increased 30% during the first 11 months of 2018, while the overall market de- clined the entire year. Toyota, Honda, Ford, Nissan, and Chevrolet are leaders in county market Toyota was the best selling brand last year, with a 17.6% share. Honda’s county share was 12.2%, well above its 10.0% share in the U.S. Tesla, Alfa Romeo, Volvo, Land Rover, and Subaru posted gains New retail registrations for each of these five brands were up more than 5% from 2017 to 2018. Honda Civic best-selling car in county mar- ket; Toyota Tacoma is light truck leader Tesla Model 3 and Toyota Camry were ranked second and third behind Civic in the car market, while Ford F-Series and Toyota RAV4 trailed the Tacoma. Non Luxury SUVs account for 32% of market Market share for Non Luxury SUVs increased to 32% during the first eleven months of last year. Small Car market share has fallen by more than eight points during the past five years. FORECAST New Vehicle Sales Should Remain Strong in 2019 Percent Change in County Light Truck and Car Registrations 2018* vs. 2017 Light Trucks (Pickups, SUVs, and Vans) Passenger Cars UP 2.0% DOWN 11.4% Source: IHS. *Dec. 18 estimated. Source: IHS. Historical Data Source: IHS. Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding Alfa and FIAT), and Tesla. Historical figures were revised by IHS and will differ slightly from those shown in previous releases. *Figures for Dec. ‘18 were estimated by Auto Outlook. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the county from 2013 thru 2018 and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2019.