Pub. 6 2017-2018 Issue 4

30 San Diego Dealer Covering Second Quarter 2018 Volume 18, Number 3 San Diego Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market Market Summary Source: IHS Markit. Annual Trend in County Market Historical Data Source: IHS Markit. YTD '17 YTD '18 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru June thru June '17 to '18 YTD '18 TOTAL 77,384 74,503 -3.7% Car 36,007 31,924 -11.3% 42.8% Light Truck 41,377 42,579 2.9% 57.2% Domestic 20,790 20,835 0.2% 28.0% European 11,444 10,981 -4.0% 14.7% Japanese 38,982 36,727 -5.8% 49.3% Korean 6,168 5,960 -3.4% 8.0% 126166 139287 146844 161240 162239 157017 152500 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Forecast New light vehicle registrations Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding Alfa and FIAT), and Tesla. Historical figures were revised by IHS Markit and will differ slightly from those shown in previous releases. *Figures for June ‘18 were estimated by Auto Outlook. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the county from 2012 thru 2017 and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2018. FORECAST County New Vehicle Market Remains Strong in First Half of 2018 Below is a list of 10 key trends and developments in the San Diego County new vehicle market: 1. County new retail registrations declined 3.7% in the first half of this year versus a year earlier. The U.S. market was up by less than 1%. (Note: June figures were estimated). 2. As shown on the graph below, the market has flattened during the past several years, but sales have remained at elevated levels. 3. Auto Outlook’s annual forecast for 2018 new retail light vehicle registrations: 152,500 units, down slightly from 2017. 4. Light truck market share increased from 53.5% during the first six months of 2017 to 57.2% this year. 5. Registrations for Domestic brands were up 0.2% so far this year, better than the 3.7% overall industry decrease. 6. Alternative powertrain (hybrid and electric vehicle) market share was 11.4% thru May of this year, up from last year. 7. Three biggest segments in the county are Compact Car, Compact SUV, and Mid Size SUV. 8. Brands with the largest percentage increases in registrations dur- ing the first six months of this year (among top 30 brands): Alfa Romeo, Tesla, Volvo, Mitsubishi, and Land Rover. 9. County market share leaders in the first half of 2018 were Toyota, Honda, Ford, Chevrolet, and Nissan. 10. Top ten selling vehicles in county market: Honda Civic, Toyota Tacoma, Ford F-Series, Toyota Camry, Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, Tesla Model 3, Honda Accord, Toyota Corolla, and Nissan Rogue. Market Outlook for next two years: New vehicle sales should remain above average; uncertainties increasing Strong economic growth, rising em- ployment, and increasing incomes have helped keep new vehicle sales at elevated levels. Some potential storm clouds are on the horizon, however. Negative fallout from tariffs, rising interest rates, and inflationary pres- sures are concerns for the market.