Pub. 6 2017-2018 Issue 3

30 San Diego Dealer Covering Fourth Quarter 2017 Volume 18, Number 1 San Diego Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market Market Summary Source: IHS Markit. Annual Trend in County Market Historical Data Source: IHS Markit. 2016 2017 % Chg. Mkt. Share Annual Annual* '16 to '17 2017* TOTAL 162,239 158,349 -2.4% Car 82,790 72,563 -12.4% 45.8% Light Truck 79,449 85,786 8.0% 54.2% Domestic 42,519 41,819 -1.6% 26.4% European 24,094 24,358 1.1% 15.4% Japanese 83,257 79,864 -4.1% 50.4% Korean 12,369 12,308 -0.5% 7.8% 126166 139287 146844 161240 162239 158349 153750 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018 Forecast New light vehicle registrations Below is a summary of eight key trends and developments in the San Diego County new vehicle market. County new retail light vehicle registrations exceeded 158,000 units in 2017 The new vehicle market declined slightly last year, but sales remained at elevated levels. 2017 marked the fourth consecutive year that new registrations exceeded 145,000 units, which is a lofty total for the San Diego County market. New vehicle sales likely to soften in 2018 As mentioned in the previous release of Auto Outlook, there are several signs that are point- ing to a market slowdown. But a relatively healthy economy, a steady stream of impres- sive new products, and strong consumer af- fordability should limit declines over the next several years Trucks grab a larger share of county market Light truck market share increased from 38.3% in 2012 to 54.2% in 2017. Alternative powertrain market improves County registrations of hybrid and electric cars and trucks increased 8.4% during the first 11 months of 2017, while the overall market fell 2.4%. Toyota Honda, Ford, Nissan, and Chevrolet are leaders in county market Toyota was the best selling brand last year, with a 17.7% share. Honda’s county share was 12.5%, well above its 10.3% share in the U.S. Infiniti, Mitsubishi, Audi, Chrysler, and Porsche gained ground during past year New retail registrations for each of these five brands were up more than 5% from 2016 to 2017. Honda Civic best-selling car in county mar- ket; Ford F-Series is light truck leader Honda Accord and Toyota Corolla were ranked second and third behind Civic in the car mar- ket, while Toyota Tacoma and RAV4 trailed the F-Series. Non Luxury SUVs account for 30% of market Market share for Non Luxury SUVs increased to 30% during the first eleven months of last year. Non Luxury Mid Size and Large Car mar- ket share fell by more than three points. FORECAST New Vehicle Sales Should Remain Strong in 2018 Percent Change in County Light Truck and Car Registrations 2017* vs. 2016 Light Trucks (Pickups, SUVs, and Vans) Passenger Cars Source: IHS Markit. *Dec. 17 estimated. Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding Alfa and FIAT), and Tesla. Historical figures were revised by IHS Markit and will differ slightly from those shown in previous releases. *Figures for Dec., 2017 were estimated by Auto Outlook. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the county from 2012 thru 2017 and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2018. *Figures for Dec., 2017 were estimated by Auto Outlook. UP 8.0% DOWN 12.4%