Pub. 5 2016-2017 Issue 1

24 San Diego Dealer 77,685 87,573 99,199 126,267 139,366 146,947 161,196 164,500 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Forecast New light vehicle registrations Covering Second Quarter 2016 San Diego Auto Outlook San Diego Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market YTD '15 YTD '16 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru June thru June* '15 to '16 YTD '16* TOTAL 77,055 78,324 1.6% Car 44,134 41,425 -6.1% 52.9% Light Truck 32,921 36,899 12.1% 47.1% Domestic 19,774 21,077 6.6% 26.9% European 11,833 10,821 -8.6% 13.8% Japanese 39,547 40,568 2.6% 51.8% Korean 5,901 5,858 -0.7% 7.5% Market Summary Annual Trend in County Market Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding FIAT), and Tesla. His- torical figures were revised by IHS Automotive and will differ slightly from those shown in previous releases. *Figures for June, 2016 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: IHS Automotive. FORECAST County Market Up Slightly in First Half of 2016 Small increase predicted for all of this year The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the county from 2009 thru 2015 and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2016. Historical Data Source: IHS Automotive. Information overload is hard to avoid these days. Here’s our attempt to cut through the clutter. Below is a concise summary of key trends and developments in the San Diego County new vehicle market. County market posts gain during first half of ‘16; increase is almost identical to U.S. County new retail registrations were up 1.6% for the first six months of this year (June figures were estimated) versus a year earlier, slightly above the 1.5% uptick in the National market. New vehicle market was up slightly in Sec- ond Quarter of this year The Second Quarter increase was just 0.6%, lower than the 2.7% improvement in the First Quarter (see page 2). Seventh consecutive annual increase likely in 2016 County new retail light vehicle registrations are projected to improve by 2% from 2015 to 2016. It’s possible that the annual total this year could approach 165,000 units. Market will likely reach sales peek in 2016; but don’t bet on it There are times when it’s relatively easy to dis- cern what direction the new vehicle market is headed in. When sales tumbled in 2009, ev- erybody knew that there would be a recovery. And while many analysts were pessimistic that the market would return to the peaks reached in the 2000’s, Auto Outlook was confident that sales would return to those levels. Our regular review of key market predictors unambiguous- ly indicated that the market had a very good chance to return to near record-high levels within about five years. But the outlook for where sales are headed over the next 12 to 18 months is cloudier. It’s great to be able to predict sales with certainty, but frankly, sometimes that’s just not possible. And that’s where we are right now. At this point, it looks like the market will be flat, or perhaps decline slightly in 2017. But the impact of the Presidential election, fallout from Brexit, stag- nant global economic growth, and the aggres- siveness with which manufacturers will ratchet up incentives are all wild cards for the new ve- hicle market. Core fundamentals are pointing to another good year for sales in 2017, but it’s basically a coin flip to decide whether sales will inch higher, or decline slightly. Tesla, Volvo, Jaguar, Ram, Land Rover, Buick, Chevrolet, Jeep, Nissan, and Honda gain a lot of ground so far this year These 10 brands had the largest percentage increases during the first six months of this year versus a year earlier. Registrations for each brand were up by more than 10% Honda Civic and Toyota Corolla are top sell- ers in county market Civic and Corolla were at the top of the county sales chart so far this year. They were fol- lowed by Nissan Sentra, Honda Accord, Toyota Tacoma, Toyota Prius, Ford F-Series, and Toyota Camry.