Pub. 3 2014-2015 Issue 1

28 San Diego Dealer Covering Second Quarter 2014 San Diego Auto Outlook -7.9% -17.3% -40.3% 30.4% 15.3% 11.6% -5% -80.0% -60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 7 yrs. old 6 yrs. old 5 yrs. old 4 yrs. old 3 yrs. old 2 yrs. old 1 yr. or newer USED VEHICLE MARKET REPORT County Used Vehicle Market Basically Flat in First Half ‘14 Used vehicle registrations slipped 0.3% thru May of this year Below is a list of key trends in the San Diego County retail used vehicle market: • Retail used registrations in the county declined 0.3% during the first five months of 2014 versus a year ear- lier. • As shown on the graph below, the gap between the size of the new and used vehicle markets (vehicles six year old or newer) has widened during the past 19 months. In November of 2012, the three month moving average for new vehicle registrations was 10,381, fairly close to the 9,055 for six year old or newer used vehicles. In May of this year, the gap had widened to 12,799 for new vehicles vs. just 6,588 for used. • The sharp decline in new vehicle sales for 2009 has led to short supplies of five year old vehicles, leading to the 40.3% drop in five year old vehicle registrations. • Used light truck registrations fell 1.1%, while cars were up slightly. • Nissan Altima was the best-selling model in the county among 2 year old or newer vehicles. BMW 3-Series was the leader for 3 to 4 year old models. • Among the top 15 selling brands, Hyundai, Nissan, BMW, Honda, VW, Toyota, Lexus, and Mazda were the only brands to have an increase in used registrations so far this year. Percent Change in County Retail Used Registrations by Vehicle Age, YTD 2014 thru May vs. YTD 2013 San Diego County Retail Used Light Vehicle Registrations YTD thru May Registrations % Change Market Share YTD '13 YTD '14 '13 TO '14 YTD '13 YTD '14 TOTAL 125,670 125,313 -0.3% Cars 75,491 75,681 0.3% 60.1% 60.4% Light Trucks 50,179 49,632 -1.1% 39.9% 39.6% Detroit Three 47,761 45,760 -4.2% 38.0% 36.5% European 19,471 19,838 1.9% 15.5% 15.8% Japanese 53,636 54,553 1.7% 42.7% 43.5% Korean 4,802 5,162 7.5% 3.8% 4.1% Source: Polk. Source: Polk. Source: Polk. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Used New The gap between the new and six year old used vehicle markets has widened. During the first five months of 2014, the new vehicle market was up 4.8% versus 2013, while the six year old used market was off 19%. San Diego County New and Used Retail Registrations - Three Month Moving Average (used only includes vehicles 6 years old or newer)