Pub. 2 2014 Issue 4

102,624 77,707 87,621 99,255 126,570 139,593 147,500 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast New light vehicle registrations Covering First Quarter 2014 San Diego Auto Outlook San Diego Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market Market Summary YTD '13 YTD '14 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Mar thru Mar* '13 to '14 YTD '14* TOTAL 31,807 33,952 6.7% Car 19,644 20,123 2.4% 59.3% Light Truck 12,163 13,829 13.7% 40.7% Detroit Three 8,160 8,661 6.1% 25.5% European 4,992 5,246 5.1% 15.5% Japanese 15,994 17,525 9.6% 51.6% Korean 2,661 2,520 -5.3% 7.4% FORECAST County New Vehicle Market Up 6.7% in First Quarter of 2014 Registrations predicted to approach 150,000 units for entire year Below is a list of 10 key trends and developments in the San Diego County new vehicle market: 1. San Diego County new retail light vehicle registrations increased 6.7% in the First Quarter of this year versus a year earlier, above the estimated 1.6% improvement in the Nation. (Note: March figures were estimated). 2. Auto Outlook’s annual forecast for 2014 new retail light vehicle registrations: 147,500 units, up 5.7% from 2013. 3. Light truck market share increased from 38.2% in the First Quar- ter of 2013 to 40.7% this year. 4. Registrations for Japanese brands were up 9.6% so far this year, above the 6.7% overall industry increase. 5. The new vehicle market has come a long way from the depths of the recession. Registrations in the First Quarter of this year were an estimated 33,952 units, up more than 14,000 compared to the First Quarter of 2010. 6. Alternative powertrain (hybrid and electric) market share was 9% thru February of this year, up slightly from last year. 7. Three biggest segments in the county are Sub Compact Car, Standard Mid Size Car, and Compact SUV. 8. Brands with the largest percentage increases in registrations dur- ing the first three months of this year: Ram, Jeep, Jaguar, Lexus, and Mitsubishi. Top five in market share were Toyota, Ford, Honda, Nissan, and Chevrolet. 9. The county unemployment rate has declined from a high of 11% in January of 2010 to 7% in February of this year. 10. Top five selling cars in county market: Toyota Prius, Toyota Co- rolla, Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, and Honda Accord. Top five light trucks: Toyota Tacoma, Ford F-Series, Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, and Ford Escape. Detroit Three consists of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, and Chrysler. *Figures for March, 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: Polk. Annual Trend in County Market The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the county from 2008 thru 2013, and Auto Outlook’s projection for all of 2014. Historical data source: Polk. General Market Outlook for next two years: Sales likely to move higher; but market is approaching it’s cyclical peak Gradually improving economic conditions, the easing of the household debt burden, and most significantly, pent up demand have provided the boost to new vehicle sales during the past four years. Although sales are likely to in- crease during the next year or two, the pace of the recovery is almost certain to ease.