Pub. 1 2013 Issue 4

34 San Diego Dealer 102,624 77,707 87,621 99,255 126,570 136,750 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 New light vehicle registrations Market is predicted to improve 8% in 2013. Covering First Quarter 2013 San Diego Auto Outlook San Diego Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market Market Summary FORECAST Market Should Post Fourth Consecutive Annual Increase in ‘13 New retail light vehicle registrations predicted to exceed 2009 total by nearly 60,000 units! Below is a list of 10 key trends and developments in the San Diego County new vehicle market: 1. San Diego County new retail light vehicle registrations increased 10% in the First Quarter of this year versus a year earlier, higher than the 8.2% improvement in the Nation. (Note: March figures were estimated.) 2. Auto Outlook’s annual forecast for 2013 new retail light vehicle registrations: 136,750 units, up 8% from 2012. 3. Light truck market share increased from 37.9% in the First Quar- ter of 2012 to 38.9% this year. 4. Registrations for Detroit Three brands were up 16.8% so far this year, above the 10% industry increase. 5. The new vehicle market has come a long way from the depths of the 2008/2009 recession. Registrations in the First Quarter of this year were an estimated 31,754 units, up more than 13,000 units compared to the First Quarter of 2009. 6. Alternative powertrain (hybrid and electric) market share was 8% thru February of this year, the same as last year. 7. Three biggest segments in the county are Sub Compact Car, Standard Mid Size Car, and Compact SUV. Change in Data Source Effective with this release, the data source for Auto Outlook is R.L. Polk and Company. This change was made to improve the accuracy and reliability of the data presented. Historical figures will change slightly from those presented in previous issues. If you have any questions, please contact Auto Outlook. Thank you! 8. Brands with the largest percentage increases in registrations dur- ing the first three months of this year: Buick, Cadillac, Subaru, Dodge, and Land Rover. Top five in market share were Toyota, Ford, Honda, Nissan, and Chevrolet. 9. Key factors providing a boost to new vehicle market: pent up demand, low interest rates, availability of credit, and high trade in values. Factors holding the market back: slowly recovering la- bor market, restrictive fiscal policy, and below average consumer sentiment. 10. Top five selling cars in county market: Toyota Prius, Toyota Co- rolla, Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, and Honda Accord. Top five light trucks: Toyota Tacoma, Ford F-Series, Honda CRV, Toyota RAV4, and Ford Escape. Detroit Three consists of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, and Chrysler. *Figures for March, 2013 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: Polk. Annual Trend in County Market The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the county from 2008 thru 2012, and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2013. Historical data source: Polk. YTD '12 YTD '13 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Mar. thru Mar.* '12 to '13 YTD '13 TOTAL 28,856 31,754 10.0% Car 17,916 19,412 8.4% 61.1% Light Truck 10,940 12,342 12.8% 38.9% Detroit Three 6,944 8,109 16.8% 25.5% European 4,609 5,087 10.4% 16.0% Japanese 14,308 15,716 9.8% 49.5% Korean 2,995 2,841 -5.1% 8.9%