Pub. 1 2012 Issue 2

34 San Diego Dealer 103,978 74,517 86,247 97,368 119,600 131,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Forecast 2013 Forecast New light vehicle registrations Market is predicted to improve 22.8% in 2012, and 9.5% in 2013. Covering Third Quarter 2012 San Diego Auto Outlook Annual Trend in County New Vehicle Market New Vehicle Market Summary San Diego Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market YTD '11 YTD '12 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Sept. thru Sept. '11 to '12 YTD '12 Total Registrations 73,822 93,822 27.1% Car 44,036 57,910 31.5% 61.7% Light Truck 29,786 35,912 20.6% 38.3% Detroit Three 17,877 22,321 24.9% 23.8% European 12,219 15,519 27.0% 16.5% Japanese 36,833 46,560 26.4% 49.6% Korean 6,893 9,422 36.7% 10.0% Detroit Three consists of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, and Chrysler. Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive. The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the county from 2008 thru 2011, and Auto Outlook’s projections for 2012 and 2013. FORECAST County Market to Improve for Third Consecutive Year in 2012 Smaller increase is predicted for 2013 Information overload is hard to avoid these days. Here’s our attempt to cut through the clutter. Below is a concise summary of key trends and developments in the San Diego County new vehicle market. County market posts solid gains during first three quarters of 2012; increase is well above Nation County new retail light vehicle registrations were up 27.1% through September of this year versus a year earlier, higher than the 13% uptick in the National market. New vehicle market picks up steam in Third Quarter of this year The Third Quarter increase was 41.6%, stron- ger than in the First and Second Quarters (see page 2). Fourth consecutive annual increase likely in 2013 County new retail light vehicle registrations are predicted to increase 9.5% from 2012 to 2013. This year’s annual increase is pegged at 22.8% Forecast determinants point to slower growth in new vehicle sales during next sev- eral years The likelihood of sluggish economic growth, the slowly recovering labor market, economi- cally restrictive fiscal policy from Washington, the Euro Zone debt crisis, and a slowing global economy are likely to put a mild damper on the rate of growth in new vehicle sales. Pent up demand, an improving housing market, low interest rates, and gradually improving house- hold debt levels should ensure sales will con- tinue to head higher, but at a slightly slower pace. Cars grab a larger share of county market Car market share increased from 59.7% dur- ing the first nine months of 2011 to 61.7% this year. Primary factors were higher fuel pric- es and a bevy of new product introductions. Alternative powertrain vehicle sales are up sharply in 2012 County sales of hybrid and electric cars and trucks were up 63% so far this year. Market share was 7.6% Toyota, Honda, Ford, Nissan, and Hyundai are leaders in county market Toyota was the best selling brand during the first three quarters of this year, with a 20.6% share. Honda’s share was 11.1%. smart, Land Rover, Chrysler, Kia, and Jeep gain a lot of ground in 2012 New retail registrations for each of these five brands were up more than 40% so far in 2012. Toyota Prius best-selling car in county mar- ket; CRV is light truck leader Toyota Camry and Honda Civic were ranked second and third behind Prius in the car mar- ket, while Ford F-Series and Toyota Tacoma trailed the CRV. Page 6 shows the top five sell- ers in each segment. Detroit Three lose ground in 2012, as Ko- rean brands gain share Detroit Three accounted for a smaller chunk of the county market so far this year, with share decreasing from 24.2% during the first nine months of 2011 to 23.8% in 2012.